Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad42493d5207df89b8b30766fefc8961b636287258627cf663d45e183df3c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 10c | 474.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 7c | 250.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 10c | 214.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 21c | 187.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 100.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 43c | 89.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 71c | 84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 30c | 73.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 73.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 72.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 16c | 67.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 67.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 59.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 58.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 55.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 54.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 50.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 49.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 34c | 46.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 45.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 45.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 76c | 38.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 75c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 79c | 35.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 35.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 34.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 72c | 34.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 64c | 33.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 72c | 33.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 25.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 43c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 19.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.