TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Team AION, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,773 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy50c2,820$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.9189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Spirit Academy70c1,791$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.0516058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Spirit Academy60c1,510$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.1979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Spirit Academy54c1,054$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.1532549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team AION51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked Team AION50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4508538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Spirit Academy60c899.95$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team AION11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8865625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Team AION7c746.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.613323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Team AION45c721.61$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.7212548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy55c721.61$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.721,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy71c691.75$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5148057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Team AION41c589.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.678045%36 W · 44 L+9.8wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Spirit Academy53c562.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.2648054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Team AION44c532$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.86744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked Team AION39c517.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team AION39c499.24$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3868…7ecfbacked Team AION50c480.92$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.213834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy60c425.31$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.311,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team AION32c416.52$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.991,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…7ef5backed Team AION50c400.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team AION46c393.51$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8440534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Spirit Academy52c392.21$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2658356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team AION42c365$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5364547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team AION9c359.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9813733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team AION42c297.45$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.430844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team AION41c282.11$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7462841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Team AION37c277.48$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0722240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Spirit Academy45c270.75$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.918153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team AION26c251.03$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6619251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team AION40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Team AION44c226.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Team AION48c226.18$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7113145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION27c224.79$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.931,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Team AION47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.431865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked Team AION40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team AION42c188.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.331,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Team AION40c169.03$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.853441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team AION40c166.21$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.441,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Team AION43c152.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4813647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team AION39c142.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.211,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Team AION40c122$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.022846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team AION44c115$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.631052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy50c112.86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4361449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…67e6backed Team AION20c112.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team AION33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.320820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Team AION41c108.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6334041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ac…e2a8backed Spirit Academy77c108.12$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.122254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Spirit Academy51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Team AION40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team AION51c92.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6144049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Spirit Academy55c90.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.16053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy54c89.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2238759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team AION54c88.64$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4673554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Team AION24c86.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4514336.4%52 W · 91 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Spirit Academy70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7112868%87 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team AION45c81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4356945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Team AION41c74.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7715342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab1…638bbacked Spirit Academy59c73.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.334766%31 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Spirit Academy69c72.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2937549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Team AION34c68.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1921344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team AION50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.825143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Team AION41c57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5417443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked Spirit Academy48c55.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.829337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Team AION47c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.894351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430d…d3e4backed Spirit Academy77c51.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team AION39c51.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.918652.2%97 W · 89 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Team AION40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016456.7%93 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed Team AION45c49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Spirit Academy63c47.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4811452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Team AION39c46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9430146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001b…698bbacked Spirit Academy57c40.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Team AION55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Team AION42c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Team AION43c34.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.649658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Spirit Academy67c33.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1943067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Team AION48c31.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Team AION43c30.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1516553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Team AION39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a3…5b70backed Team AION41c29.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team AION39c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9258746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Team AION50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Team AION47c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.274057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Team AION40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4685…7b03backed Team AION68c22.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.