Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ab72650dd052cd388821177c12be5d658439316eff87b4cf191a82017c49f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Team AION, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 5,845$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805.37 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Team AION | 48c | 5,738$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.48 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team AION | 31c | 1,949$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.94 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Team AION | 21c | 1,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Spirit Academy | 79c | 1,360$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.57 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 730.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.8 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team AION | 20c | 516.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked Team AION | 20c | 492.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 471.61$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Team AION | 48c | 410$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team AION | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team AION | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 275.3$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team AION | 20c | 253.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Team AION | 20c | 253.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Team AION | 33c | 252.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team AION | 5c | 245.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Team AION | 20c | 245$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team AION | 19c | 237.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Spirit Academy | 58c | 221$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 197.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team AION | 27c | 170.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Team AION | 17c | 162.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b250backed Team AION | 48c | 162.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 160.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…a722backed Team AION | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…ad4cbacked Team AION | 22c | 135.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Team AION | 48c | 131.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 129.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Team AION | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Team AION | 54c | 111.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Team AION | 48c | 101$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team AION | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team AION | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team AION | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team AION | 24c | 93.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team AION | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Team AION | 48c | 83.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Team AION | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Team AION | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…ba53backed Spirit Academy | 78c | 75.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24c…3f33backed Team AION | 45c | 75.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Spirit Academy | 55c | 74.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 67.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Team AION | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…a6cabacked Spirit Academy | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…4d19backed Spirit Academy | 78c | 63.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Team AION | 27c | 62.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Team AION | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team AION | 20c | 58.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…3fb4backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 51.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Team AION | 20c | 51.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team AION | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Team AION | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Team AION | 69c | 43.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 51c | 39.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…b34cbacked Team AION | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 48c | 34.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team AION | 40c | 32.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…698bbacked Team AION | 50c | 30.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Spirit Academy | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Team AION | 41c | 28.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…98a9backed Spirit Academy | 76c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.