TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Team AION, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy41c10,499$4,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,205.5689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team AION44c8,329$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.6632549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team AION56c4,400$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.7680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team AION62c3,970$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.2996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Team AION57c3,032$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.296744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Spirit Academy61c2,948$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.461,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team AION42c2,877$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.4514825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy62c1,751$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.612,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Team AION57c1,194$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.6615050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Spirit Academy44c1,171$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.233852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team AION59c1,130$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.6361456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Spirit Academy47c1,109$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.538153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Spirit Academy42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Spirit Academy42c838.44$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.579859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Team AION57c817.92$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.0717757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x524a…4b1cbacked Team AION4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Spirit Academy46c747.83$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.2234468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team AION50c705.81$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.911,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Spirit Academy47c685.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3924138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Team AION60c559.07$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.8611758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Team AION62c547.83$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.6521158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Spirit Academy79c533.97$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1117965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Spirit Academy40c506$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.69543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy62c462.2$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.248057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed Spirit Academy47c450$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.55038%19 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Spirit Academy63c449.7$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.447546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Team AION60c447.65$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.0325359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Team AION33c439.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1918143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Spirit Academy41c419.51$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5111656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed Spirit Academy50c410.15$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.175139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed Spirit Academy41c406.84$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.293050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Spirit Academy44c388.21$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.286845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team AION56c384.09$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0941455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Spirit Academy41c379.97$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1414048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Spirit Academy56c378.71$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.9430844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Spirit Academy50c365.69$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.094944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy46c357.7$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.581,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Spirit Academy46c347.72$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.323441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Spirit Academy53c334.88$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9922240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3868…7ecfbacked Spirit Academy58c334.75$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.913834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked Spirit Academy50c320.39$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3911535.7%41 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy50c313.73$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.661,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4685…7b03backed Team AION40c310.53$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Spirit Academy61c303.54$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7328544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Spirit Academy48c303.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7413645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team AION62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.4531052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Team AION42c297.98$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.498045%36 W · 44 L+9.8wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit Academy59c285$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4462841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Spirit Academy48c247.12$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.331,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Spirit Academy49c211.73$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.817733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy50c206.06$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6934041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a40…f518backed Team AION51c202.78$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10415437%57 W · 97 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Spirit Academy48c202.74$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.372846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…e654backed Spirit Academy55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+73.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Spirit Academy54c196.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9412548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy61c195.92$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.871,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked Spirit Academy52c192.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4520738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Spirit Academy45c171.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4711452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy61c170$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8532756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Team AION60c167.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Spirit Academy57c147.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1744049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Spirit Academy49c129$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4217443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Spirit Academy37c122.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8326550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Spirit Academy51c113.67$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6615342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Spirit Academy56c105$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4313647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf8…5d40backed Spirit Academy46c104.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Spirit Academy49c102.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.691758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Spirit Academy54c100.82$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1356945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Spirit Academy48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5247951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa091…f1c1backed Spirit Academy43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Spirit Academy52c89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4558943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team AION52c84.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Spirit Academy50c79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.324548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Team AION54c73.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4821344.1%94 W · 119 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Spirit Academy52c73.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2730146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe489…8804backed Team AION55c69.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.514349%70 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Spirit Academy46c66.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.539658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761d…f16dbacked Spirit Academy45c63.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Spirit Academy52c61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.458746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Team AION58c53.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1830255.3%167 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed Team AION57c52.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2975…0aafbacked Team AION58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Spirit Academy41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.519249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team AION34c49.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9913027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Team AION58c49.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0728252.1%147 W · 135 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Spirit Academy43c48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.177538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Spirit Academy43c47.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.940442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Spirit Academy42c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9816456.7%93 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe525…9ecbbacked Team AION57c44.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430d…d3e4backed Spirit Academy59c43.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Spirit Academy63c43.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Team AION56c43.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3242660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4462…bfdfbacked Team AION37c43.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x001b…698bbacked Team AION56c40.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7821…7945backed Spirit Academy51c40.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Spirit Academy59c37.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4631644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Team AION62c36.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4830054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db3…9657backed Spirit Academy48c36.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Spirit Academy43c36.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Team AION63c31.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7422558.2%131 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.