Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b3945a2f2a8c286ce52c01291db5aab0189b593b56d0164eee180ef2f6024ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 11,773$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 8c | 6,841$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.2 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 6c | 4,253$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,682$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 4c | 2,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 1,853$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 80c | 1,000$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.7 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 920.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 22c | 917.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…9d7ebacked Yes | 6c | 864.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2271backed Yes | 1c | 757.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 16c | 630$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 580.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…85abbacked Yes | 5c | 568.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 514.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 49c | 449.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c47…fd8ebacked Yes | 7c | 370.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 313.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 15c | 300.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 297.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e93…aaa4backed Yes | 4c | 287.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked No | 59c | 270$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 255.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed Yes | 19c | 237.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 17c | 206.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 35c | 206.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed No | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed Yes | 38c | 154.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…d3b7backed Yes | 20c | 140.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 122.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 46c | 112.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 20c | 87.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked No | 79c | 80.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 27c | 57.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 67c | 41.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…0df1backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.