Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4311ae1e97f76fdbb1efb0beb8f76920f09f658461b81fe035b90651ceb713

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Fnaticof Team Vitality, Fnatic
Resolved: May 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8479…40dfbacked Fnatic	61c	9,088$5,544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,544.47	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-7.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Vitality	39c	8,888$3,466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,466.32	537	50.5%271 W · 266 L	+14.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Fnatic	55c	6,410$3,526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,884.71	704	56.4%397 W · 307 L	+39.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed Team Vitality	47c	5,839$2,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,744.1	122	36.9%45 W · 77 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Fnatic	53c	5,191$2,751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,439.8	1,827	45.6%834 W · 993 L	+26.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Team Vitality	39c	4,467$1,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,754.88	644	43%277 W · 367 L	-27.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed Team Vitality	45c	4,309$1,939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,938.9	138	31.2%43 W · 95 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Fnatic	58c	4,284$2,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,812.58	1,501	54.5%818 W · 683 L	+34.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Vitality	42c	2,489$1,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,044.88	1,368	37.7%516 W · 852 L	-6.8wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Fnatic	61c	1,976$1,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$761.5	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Team Vitality	45c	1,950$878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.5	376	47.9%180 W · 196 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Vitality	39c	1,300$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507	857	46.3%397 W · 460 L	+17.4wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed Team Vitality	39c	1,050$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.5	112	49.1%55 W · 57 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed Fnatic	60c	1,000$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	85	60%51 W · 34 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Vitality	44c	887.97$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.71	1,609	48.4%779 W · 830 L	+24.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Team Vitality	39c	881$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.59	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-7.8wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team Vitality	42c	714.29$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,007	47.9%482 W · 525 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Fnatic	61c	667$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.13	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69e3…761fbacked Fnatic	59c	549.99$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.49	122	60.7%74 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Team Vitality	43c	546.17$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	118	40.7%48 W · 70 L	-11.3wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9227…e497backed Fnatic	62c	542.6$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.19	143	35%50 W · 93 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Team Vitality	39c	512.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	436	40.6%177 W · 259 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Fnatic	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	605	38.8%235 W · 370 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Fnatic	62c	424.6$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.6	282	53.5%151 W · 131 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Fnatic	62c	422.22$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.22	268	44%118 W · 150 L	-37.1wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Fnatic	62c	419.99$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.59	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+5.5wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Team Vitality	38c	394.74$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	281	50.5%142 W · 139 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef2…5584backed Team Vitality	41c	323.38$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.2	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…ac09backed Team Vitality	46c	308.91$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.1	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Fnatic	61c	306.53$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	579	45.9%266 W · 313 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Fnatic	59c	299.78$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.17	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Team Vitality	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	440	46.4%204 W · 236 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Fnatic	59c	249.43$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.32	2,156	53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L	+57.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Fnatic	62c	241.94$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.94	650	63.2%411 W · 239 L	+7.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Fnatic	61c	233$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.87	299	52.2%156 W · 143 L	+13.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Team Vitality	39c	210.93$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.64	557	44%245 W · 312 L	-17.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Fnatic	56c	196.52$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.47	861	44.1%380 W · 481 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Team Vitality	43c	190.99$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.48	608	49.5%301 W · 307 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355b…4fb7backed Fnatic	53c	189.99$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.3	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Fnatic	54c	185$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.1	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fnatic	54c	185$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.1	1,239	37.3%462 W · 777 L	-39.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-27%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Fnatic	54c	162.32$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.67	866	49.7%430 W · 436 L	+18.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Team Vitality	45c	133.46$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.06	331	39.9%132 W · 199 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Team Vitality	39c	129.74$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	206	31.6%65 W · 141 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Team Vitality	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	187	52.4%98 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Team Vitality	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	417	43.9%183 W · 234 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Team Vitality	55c	124.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.74	510	44.1%225 W · 285 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Team Vitality	41c	121.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	227	41%93 W · 134 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Team Vitality	37c	120$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	316	50.3%159 W · 157 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Fnatic	61c	120$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	797	45.8%365 W · 432 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2b…d422backed Team Vitality	41c	120$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.8	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed Team Vitality	41c	114.63$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Vitality	39c	109.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	1,241	34.7%431 W · 810 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Team Vitality	42c	106.23$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.62	1,385	45.1%625 W · 760 L	-12.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Team Vitality	43c	87.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	181	48.6%88 W · 93 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b3…df4ebacked Team Vitality	39c	86.41$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5844…12e2backed Team Vitality	43c	82.3$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Fnatic	51c	78.67$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.24	350	54.6%191 W · 159 L	+12.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Fnatic	56c	68.68$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.44	1,576	48.4%763 W · 813 L	+17.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…be66backed Team Vitality	43c	58.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-5.1wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c78…b145backed Team Vitality	39c	57.92$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Team Vitality	39c	55.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	249	49.8%124 W · 125 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce7…cfaabacked Fnatic	56c	54.68$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.06	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Team Vitality	37c	54.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	150	46%69 W · 81 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e86…7932backed Fnatic	56c	50.68$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.45	611	50.6%309 W · 302 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Team Vitality	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	450	44.7%201 W · 249 L	-29.1wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df2…d357backed Fnatic	62c	48.39$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.39	409	59.2%242 W · 167 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Team Vitality	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10a…890cbacked Team Vitality	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	152	55.3%84 W · 68 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Team Vitality	39c	38.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	347	43.5%151 W · 196 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Fnatic	51c	35.23$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.12	751	50.7%381 W · 370 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5a41…c739backed Fnatic	62c	32.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Team Vitality	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	244	53.3%130 W · 114 L	-11.2wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a07…5883backed Team Vitality	41c	28.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Vitality	35c	28.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,831	17.1%313 W · 1,518 L	-236.0wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-46%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb14d…8f95backed Fnatic	56c	24.43$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.75	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fnatic	54c	18.72$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	2,406	42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L	+21.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed Fnatic	63c	17.46$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.46	316	61.1%193 W · 123 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)this page
First Blood in Game 1?Fnatic won
First Blood in Game 2?Team Vitality won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonTeam Vitality won
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 1 WinnerFnatic won
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 2 WinnerTeam Vitality won
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event