TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks44c441.52$194 inLost-$194.273,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Celtics56c357.14$200 inWon+$157.1438649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee2f…7677backed Celtics56c89.38$50 inWon+$39.382969%20 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Bucks45c83$37 inLost-$37.357353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Bucks45c56$25 inLost-$25.26855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks42c38.62$16 inLost-$16.225,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Celtics58c35$20 inWon+$14.7510957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Celtics55c29$16 inWon+$13.054153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3517…9f8dbacked Celtics55c25$14 inWon+$11.253447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.