NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c852653282838d6c646c2cca5c43b4139b6511f15ed3f7c124520b2ec2941a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb351…5fbfbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 3,533$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 42c | 2,667$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 53c | 2,651$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.2 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Over | 48c | 2,051$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.54 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 1,914$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.78 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,736$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 40c | 1,726$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.57 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Under | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 1,372$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.52 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 1,280$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Over | 43c | 1,050$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 367 | 41.4%152 W · 215 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 1,011$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.33 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 26c | 795.34$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.68 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 57c | 663$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.09 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 58c | 413.25$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 43c | 413$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 56c | 345$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 340$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Over | 40c | 252.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 57c | 214.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 38c | 182.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 57c | 171.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 56c | 118.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 60c | 109$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9aa5backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…140fbacked Over | 45c | 68.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 43c | 58.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 56.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 37c | 55.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…ba86backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 61c | 48.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 62c | 45.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 53c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 58c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BucksBucks won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.