NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92247634d71d8782feb476cee514fbb6ce9652c2aff4075c4c6d3a09f9b1cd47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Celtics, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 44c | 3,129$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Celtics | 55c | 2,231$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.11 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Celtics | 56c | 2,179$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.02 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Celtics | 58c | 2,081$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Bucks | 44c | 1,822$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.32 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks | 41c | 1,599$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.41 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…08a9backed Celtics | 59c | 1,597$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.41 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 42c | 1,575$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.73 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 45c | 1,414$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.42 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 45c | 1,328$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bucks | 47c | 1,275$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Celtics | 54c | 1,263$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.04 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 44c | 970$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 41c | 793.3$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.22 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Celtics | 57c | 660$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.2 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Celtics | 54c | 554.29$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.32 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 49c | 518.11$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Celtics | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Celtics | 59c | 340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Celtics | 58c | 248.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Bucks | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bucks | 52c | 162.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 46c | 159.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…4024backed Celtics | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Celtics | 24c | 157.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…5c53backed Celtics | 59c | 154.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Bucks | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Celtics | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Bucks | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Celtics | 59c | 101.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…7050backed Celtics | 55c | 100.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Bucks | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bucks | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bucks | 45c | 98.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Bucks | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…c6e4backed Celtics | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Celtics | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Celtics | 58c | 66.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Bucks | 45c | 63.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Celtics | 58c | 51.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Celtics | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Bucks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Celtics | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Celtics | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Bucks | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Celtics | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Celtics | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Celtics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks | 49c | 32.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Celtics | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…792abacked Celtics | 58c | 31.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Bucks | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Celtics | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…8df0backed Celtics | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Celtics | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Celtics | 58c | 22.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bucks | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Celtics | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…f737backed Celtics | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked Celtics | 57c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Celtics | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BucksBucks won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.