TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Celtics, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,312,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,304,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,312,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6fa…51e5backed Celtics0c239,122$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.5847349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks22c75,370$16,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,659.184,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Celtics79c60,127$47,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,5001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks21c29,463$6,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,275.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Celtics79c26,157$20,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,604.1914434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bucks22c25,785$5,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,148.6827424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bucks21c20,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,799.9938434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks24c19,110$4,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,587.945,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks23c17,286$4,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,279.632,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks22c15,360$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,980.83,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Celtics77c15,000$11,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,55038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Bucks21c15,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,799.7147028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Celtics78c12,821$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Bucks22c12,750$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9453151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks37c12,728$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.531,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Celtics75c11,431$8,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,596.5613455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics66c10,794$7,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,075.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bucks22c10,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Bucks20c9,243$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.45251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Celtics1c8,663$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9416130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks21c8,007$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,301.611,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Bucks25c7,122$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,346.0436741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bucks19c6,374$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,178.4727917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b73…7421backed Bucks23c5,874$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,523.24425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c9…7878backed Celtics77c5,764$4,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,463.593243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bucks21c5,714$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,514.2972450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8702…6304backed Bucks15c5,514$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,672.739026.7%24 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtics26c5,503$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.31,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0280…a33ebacked Celtics78c5,500$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Celtics75c5,294$3,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,956.2644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Celtics56c5,220$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.481,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Celtics78c5,190$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,048.291,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks24c5,050$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8381,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Bucks21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9505350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Celtics78c5,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe756…e006backed Bucks15c4,851$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,101.1532827.4%90 W · 238 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Celtics79c4,684$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70015855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Celtics76c4,335$3,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,294.67347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bucks24c4,304$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.491,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Bucks24c4,167$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.6724831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Bucks21c3,842$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.561835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks21c3,837$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,019.159,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Celtics79c3,797$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Celtics37c3,419$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.462,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Celtics43c3,284$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41319136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Bucks15c3,267$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.8715336.6%56 W · 97 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Celtics78c3,212$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Celtics18c3,176$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.1823043%99 W · 131 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks34c3,107$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.338,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Bucks22c3,090$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.5622637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf7…adcdbacked Celtics79c3,027$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Bucks23c3,013$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.1823348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Celtics30c3,007$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9032,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bucks21c3,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3701,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Bucks22c3,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b76…adb3backed Bucks22c3,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3401127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Bucks21c3,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3704535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29bf…1e8bbacked Celtics76c3,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7e…202bbacked Bucks23c3,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick30cpaid+173.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Bucks26c2,775$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.5935651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a8…3d3fbacked Bucks23c2,749$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.835139.2%20 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+63.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Bucks59c2,746$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.0621055.2%116 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Celtics75c2,562$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.642,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bucks23c2,500$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Bucks26c2,500$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85017250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bucks17c2,459$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.7544654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b77…f234backed Bucks23c2,400$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8481457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+54.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Celtics79c2,285$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.1576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Celtics1c2,257$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.798820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked Bucks32c2,200$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4969943.4%43 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Celtics78c2,165$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.829260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Celtics77c2,152$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.8415274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Celtics61c2,148$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.6273649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Celtics68c2,100$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43734447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ad…9577backed Celtics78c2,066$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.062343.5%10 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-36.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xae3e…a5f4backed Celtics79c2,035$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.721435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b45…41e3backed Bucks23c2,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5502236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Celtics1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2067911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Bucks21c2,000$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.7875347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Celtics77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Celtics1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Bucks46c1,997$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.731,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0140…f773backed Bucks24c1,895$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.035433.3%18 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+57%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Celtics79c1,807$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.37437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Bucks15c1,758$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.718345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Celtics1c1,656$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Bucks18c1,650$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.2222836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5341…2b42backed Celtics79c1,646$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3004753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Bucks22c1,610$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.153540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Bucks24c1,544$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.1160834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Bucks22c1,538$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.9215945.9%73 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Bucks21c1,500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18517931.8%57 W · 122 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Bucks14c1,416$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.4321923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Celtics79c1,392$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.6726637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Bucks22c1,364$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.6429635.8%106 W · 190 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…66a1backed Bucks58c1,361$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.311060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb61…8e04backed Celtics78c1,315$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc171…4d73backed Bucks23c1,300$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+129.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e4…4e14backed Bucks22c1,300$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0141560%9 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+115.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd230…d077backed Bucks23c1,300$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick35cpaid+187.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.