NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d921d1eaa76d774ed847c6be9829615927fd35ed83a5c161a6416957303c612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed Under | 58c | 50,000$29,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,000 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 42c | 45,776$19,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,225.82 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Under | 53c | 17,000$9,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,990 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…6c1cbacked Over | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,050 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 59c | 13,375$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.66 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 42c | 12,127$5,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,095.78 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 54c | 5,364$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,463.71 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5fbfbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 4,822$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 42c | 4,228$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.67 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 52c | 3,628$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.37 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Over | 48c | 2,889$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.88 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 47c | 2,130$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.1 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4110…42a9backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 367 | 41.4%152 W · 215 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 57c | 950.96$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.82 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Over | 48c | 895.83$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 57c | 740.91$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.36 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 640.9$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 43c | 490$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Over | 42c | 480.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 463.7$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.85 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 58c | 452.84$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Over | 41c | 450$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 401.9$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 26c | 218.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 42c | 202.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 46c | 201.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 47c | 190.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 181.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 43c | 179$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…5e7cbacked Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 117.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 107.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 42c | 106.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc67…3020backed Over | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Over | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 59c | 82.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 44c | 70.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 55.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 38c | 53.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…dbf8backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 50c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BucksBucks won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.