NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa704b01ae2a1c1f6fc76ba86e82f7b58ede7f8b6704e31046f1b5097c40c480b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Celtics, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Celtics | 54c | 9,259$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Bucks | 47c | 7,402$3,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,923 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 47c | 6,771$3,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,567.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 47c | 6,183$2,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.97 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Celtics | 51c | 4,586$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.04 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Bucks | 47c | 4,276$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.35 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Celtics | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 45c | 2,680$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Celtics | 53c | 2,446$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.26 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Celtics | 54c | 2,204$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Bucks | 48c | 1,848$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.1 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 46c | 1,723$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics | 53c | 1,560$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.8 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Celtics | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 46c | 1,036$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks | 44c | 839.53$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.14 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Celtics | 53c | 567.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Celtics | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Bucks | 48c | 287.87$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.87 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Celtics | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Bucks | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…124dbacked Celtics | 53c | 163.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e6…5920backed Bucks | 48c | 162.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Bucks | 48c | 149.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…fac3backed Bucks | 48c | 130.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 61c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…0111backed Celtics | 53c | 113.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Bucks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Bucks | 47c | 104$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…414abacked Celtics | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…049fbacked Celtics | 53c | 75.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Celtics | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Bucks | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bucks | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Bucks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Bucks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…44b3backed Bucks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…2e1dbacked Bucks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Celtics | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Bucks | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Bucks | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Celtics | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Celtics | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Celtics | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Celtics | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Celtics | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…dd6dbacked Celtics | 53c | 22.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…4761backed Celtics | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Celtics | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Celtics | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Celtics | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Celtics | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Celtics | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. BucksBucks won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.