Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bbad6a59530c9b1cc2e7299511a3a2290c6c2078b06933193ce1666123643ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 617.78$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 76c | 466.7$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 273.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 271.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 217$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 34c | 194.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 182.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 20c | 173.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 159.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 78c | 145.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 134.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 64c | 118.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 69c | 118.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 110.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 110.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 110.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 25c | 99.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…876bbacked Yes | 28c | 90.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 34c | 89.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 28c | 85.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…fb88backed Yes | 13c | 77.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 71.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 67.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 67.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 59.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…7107backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked Yes | 39c | 55.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 27c | 54.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 51.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked No | 63c | 47.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 44.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 32c | 44.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 61c | 39.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 37.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 37.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 33.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 32.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 31.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 31.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…36e5backed No | 63c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9536backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…6cefbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.