Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68cb4885de5404ba73157a7dc66b80dbb02dcf891b8e518594266fe3ced7138f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 48c | 231.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 216.58$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 186.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 165.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 153.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 150.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 57c | 145.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 144.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 22c | 133.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 31c | 129.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 122.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 121$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 46c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 109.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 103.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 42c | 100.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 42c | 92.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 91.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 90.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 86.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 84.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 84.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 82.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 58c | 82.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked Yes | 41c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 76.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 75.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 70.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 69.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 43c | 69.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 60.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 60.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 73c | 54.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…493bbacked Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 51.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 51.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 46.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 71c | 45.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 45.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 57c | 44.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 61c | 41.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 40.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 39.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 56c | 36.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 56c | 35.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 51c | 33.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 32.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 32.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 31.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 31.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…0e38backed No | 52c | 26.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…e23cbacked No | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 56c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 63c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 23.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 19.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 18.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 61c | 16.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.