Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd772fd8281a7e40d4e1d73f9099617e263989d34ce369dd28d89cd83719873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 963.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 53c | 869.49$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 431.57$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 405$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 366.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 346.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 315.57$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 30c | 236.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 200.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 51c | 197.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 194.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 52c | 168.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 163.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 161.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 160.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 137.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 9c | 124$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 39c | 122.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 120.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 72c | 105.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 34c | 102.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 95.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 25c | 89.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 61c | 88.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 76.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 72.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 50c | 69.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 75c | 64.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 67c | 63.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 24c | 63.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 59.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…a94abacked Yes | 79c | 57.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 41c | 53.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 51.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…a1cbbacked Yes | 55c | 49.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 45c | 48.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 60c | 47.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 46.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 55c | 44.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 27c | 43.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 25c | 40.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 59c | 40.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 59c | 40.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 77c | 38.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…643abacked Yes | 75c | 36.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 35.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 59c | 35.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 39c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 59c | 28.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…474cbacked No | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 26.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 22.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.