Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876af98b02e17f1861d08ae5efc32120b86f567e52e82bfeeb5ad2aca3103cd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 8c | 1,262$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 548.89$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 505$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 53c | 386.22$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 362.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.41 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 264.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 262.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 255.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 176.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 159.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 158.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 158$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 23c | 142.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 132.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 125.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 123.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 115.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…a94abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 98.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 31c | 92.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…fb54backed Yes | 18c | 91.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 90.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 90.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 88.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 25c | 81.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 44c | 79.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 42c | 71.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 68.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 62.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 80c | 61.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 23c | 51.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 23c | 51.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 45c | 51.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…b3edbacked Yes | 25c | 49.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 36c | 47.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 45.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed No | 73c | 45.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 45.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 41.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 40.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 38.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 78c | 30.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 47c | 28.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 16.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.