MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bf772be31475d2c9381db24563d2f5a89f70928161c73a3a1807a34a50b53da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x986b…12e9backed Under | 42c | 10,996$4,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,601.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Under | 42c | 9,095$3,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 46c | 5,587$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.85 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 58c | 5,400$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.8 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 3,972$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 56c | 3,113$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.03 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.2 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 2,325$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 48c | 2,022$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.74 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 1,843$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 57c | 1,832$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.96 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 59c | 1,741$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.34 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Over | 49c | 1,454$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.84 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Under | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 49c | 1,066$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.83 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 48c | 1,037$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.56 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Under | 46c | 1,004$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 710.6$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.09 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 57c | 653.71$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.84 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 55c | 599$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.52 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 54c | 544.93$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.67 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 541.67$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 472.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.39 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 59c | 413.31$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.46 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 349.71$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.87 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 347.16$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Over | 54c | 334.43$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 56c | 322.42$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.15 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 45c | 199.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 54c | 175.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 54c | 160.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 55c | 145.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 55c | 145.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 131.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Under | 47c | 124$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 118.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Under | 42c | 109.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Over | 54c | 106.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 106.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 99.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 68c | 97.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 53c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 48c | 70.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 67.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 74c | 40.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 58c | 37.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Over | 67c | 33.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Over | 56c | 28.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 61c | 25.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 75c | 25.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Over | 56c | 25.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 55c | 23.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 59c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 62c | 18.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 79c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.