TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Beijing Ducks, Shanghai Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Shanghai Sharks61c8,745$5,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,448.9816828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Beijing Ducks66c6,701$4,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,428.122846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Shanghai Sharks76c6,179$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.823745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Beijing Ducks40c5,811$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.8513046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Beijing Ducks36c4,335$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.3254251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Shanghai Sharks45c3,290$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.753652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x981c…306fbacked Beijing Ducks68c2,869$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.561172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Beijing Ducks64c2,856$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.612748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Beijing Ducks14c2,246$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.18611.6%10 W · 76 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Shanghai Sharks43c2,080$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.784946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shanghai Sharks54c1,937$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.4236939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Beijing Ducks49c1,805$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.7314037.9%53 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Beijing Ducks33c1,706$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.9437052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Beijing Ducks51c1,515$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.62646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Shanghai Sharks52c1,428$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.2428943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Beijing Ducks20c1,415$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.0243543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Shanghai Sharks38c1,332$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Shanghai Sharks46c1,310$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.92763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09dd…ac07backed Beijing Ducks12c1,258$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44e4…abf6backed Beijing Ducks44c1,250$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Shanghai Sharks44c1,194$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.635152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd746…1b6dbacked Shanghai Sharks38c1,040$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.232568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Shanghai Sharks56c1,035$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.213458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Beijing Ducks42c983.91$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.6913220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Beijing Ducks51c958.79$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.188936%32 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shanghai Sharks34c892.82$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.7124430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Shanghai Sharks62c764.07$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.0526544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Shanghai Sharks60c704.06$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.646844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a9…e77ebacked Shanghai Sharks56c697$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7e…857ebacked Shanghai Sharks40c692.06$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shanghai Sharks42c657.89$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.5513545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Shanghai Sharks49c595$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.52835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0515…c7a0backed Shanghai Sharks56c575$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Shanghai Sharks44c449.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.435848.3%28 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfb…8153backed Beijing Ducks65c423.9$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Beijing Ducks63c423.2$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.621145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Shanghai Sharks39c417.59$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.47462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Shanghai Sharks37c409.61$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.3710634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Beijing Ducks20c381.63$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.110926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60da…a14ebacked Beijing Ducks62c305$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.12634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Shanghai Sharks32c303$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Beijing Ducks14c286.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0135234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Shanghai Sharks39c270.61$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.553737.8%14 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Beijing Ducks63c269.34$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6426935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Shanghai Sharks37c261.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.962462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Beijing Ducks23c257.08$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.96119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Beijing Ducks30c243.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.26142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Beijing Ducks18c231.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.521421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4523…7adebacked Beijing Ducks62c228.66$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b7…7b0dbacked Beijing Ducks21c223.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.511833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Shanghai Sharks37c215.37$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.859851%50 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Beijing Ducks11c198.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.722737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Beijing Ducks12c194.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.835628.6%16 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18e8…0f39backed Beijing Ducks50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Beijing Ducks63c182.23$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7946…8cf0backed Beijing Ducks35c159.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Beijing Ducks62c156.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed Beijing Ducks63c155.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Beijing Ducks50c153.84$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.622744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Beijing Ducks63c153.6$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Shanghai Sharks80c153.14$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.636962.3%43 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Beijing Ducks60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e74…f274backed Beijing Ducks32c139.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.281145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e56…55bbbacked Beijing Ducks21c136.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Beijing Ducks19c131.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x483b…0679backed Shanghai Sharks65c122.71$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Beijing Ducks62c116.94$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.31850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d1…074bbacked Shanghai Sharks34c112.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.573043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed0…b5b8backed Beijing Ducks50c110.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4350%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Beijing Ducks49c110.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.298544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Beijing Ducks49c110.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.297944.3%35 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3b5…5b6abacked Shanghai Sharks38c110.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ac…5fd6backed Shanghai Sharks50c105$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.57247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Beijing Ducks63c102.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Shanghai Sharks35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf245…746bbacked Shanghai Sharks38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8a…1cb9backed Shanghai Sharks52c99.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.891553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Beijing Ducks63c93.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9421535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1acc…2fecbacked Beijing Ducks65c89.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shanghai Sharks35c84.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2118144.2%80 W · 101 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Shanghai Sharks68c82.43$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.999551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Shanghai Sharks68c79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.232475%18 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Beijing Ducks63c78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.14825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Beijing Ducks65c76.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Beijing Ducks52c76.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.219748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Beijing Ducks41c74.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2225517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Beijing Ducks62c69.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2240%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x753c…157cbacked Beijing Ducks15c69.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Shanghai Sharks61c67.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Shanghai Sharks37c65.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Beijing Ducks64c63.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.74355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…b3edbacked Shanghai Sharks78c63.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.169100%9 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Beijing Ducks44c60.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.535959.3%35 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Beijing Ducks32c60.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3720936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7773…26f3backed Shanghai Sharks41c51.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2280…3780backed Shanghai Sharks43c51.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.274264.3%27 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3c…9320backed Shanghai Sharks38c50.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.423161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Beijing Ducks25c46.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.712462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b7a…52c9backed Beijing Ducks52c46.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Shanghai Sharks70c45.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.