TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over67c12,086$8,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,030.726761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over63c11,630$7,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,255.668068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under38c6,844$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.8248141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Over66c5,147$3,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.37966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under34c4,612$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.723,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under33c2,703$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.6969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b70…6ccebacked Under39c2,457$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.53837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over61c2,285$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.261,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Under34c1,345$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.151533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under33c1,300$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.992152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under33c1,295$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over73c1,283$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.281855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under30c1,272$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.7275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Under29c962.82$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.632860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under33c627.05$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.665940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under35c549.14$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-49.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under34c505.37$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4111148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under33c500.31$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1521355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under33c490.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.078547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under33c484.33$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.856453.1%34 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under33c457.93$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9920548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under27c448.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2315747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under34c432.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.917749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under33c416.05$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.517349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Over71c415.18$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.49250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over73c404.3$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1618958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x578a…6f10backed Under25c382$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under33c371.49$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.336860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under33c353.01$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.864971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Under33c353.01$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.863655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under3c350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under33c324.45$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0318644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Under33c295.15$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.42240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under33c289.66$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.596844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8b9…46e4backed Under33c288.82$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.68966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under33c287.06$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9418554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under33c285.82$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.324744.7%21 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-29.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under34c284.62$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.987751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under34c282.79$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.987450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Under33c279.1$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.15149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over71c276.79$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under33c276.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.456952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under27c276.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6433047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under28c271.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.161,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under33c266.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.911049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under27c254.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7728755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under33c229.42$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0843532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under32c224.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under25c208.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.392,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Under33c203.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.192853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over72c196.64$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.063167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Over71c196.52$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under32c192.48$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5963645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fb…e34ebacked Over73c188.67$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.942268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over67c177.85$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.699551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under9c176.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3222221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under32c172.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.087129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under33c162.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.355556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under31c152$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.129838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under33c146.72$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8720845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Under33c145.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.971030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2457…91a6backed Under34c144.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1f…acafbacked Under33c143.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under34c141.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.987749.4%38 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8c2…080bbacked Under33c135.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5690%0 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd4f3…18d6backed Over73c134.75$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under27c122.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9842046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Over68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Over67c82.26$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.756842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over67c82.26$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.758251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under34c81.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.823464.7%22 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under33c76.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5114055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…37e6backed Under33c72.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under33c72.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.993658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bf…9ac0backed Over72c68.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.11573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+39.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Under26c66.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210532.4%34 W · 71 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Under33c61.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.341855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba0…980fbacked Over67c54.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Under33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+37.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Over71c49.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.452147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under35c48.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.829850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under33c47.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.845839.7%23 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Under33c46.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.343158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8c9…bf73backed Under34c42.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Under33c40.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.371650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7356…04cfbacked Over76c40.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over68c39.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7617852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under34c38.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.011020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-72%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb63a…7637backed Over71c34.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.036369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under31c33.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4562452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under33c32.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.747050%35 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9549…d3cbbacked Over73c26.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.281040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x37dd…76e9backed Over71c20.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.