Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x033475b16f75c8c52726a212a9200bf90c1437f648f588e8d655ee12d7cc650f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 63c | 3,775$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.21 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b70…6ccebacked Under | 75c | 2,627$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Under | 65c | 2,084$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,963$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 44c | 914.22$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.72 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 69c | 805.85$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 38c | 755.23$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.99 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 38c | 718.34$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 604.7$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 60c | 532.86$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 525.19$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.84 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 43c | 520.71$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 39c | 497.81$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 32c | 454.62$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 432.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 23c | 420.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Under | 72c | 409.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 50c | 368.17$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.35 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 297.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 27c | 263.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 74c | 233.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 194.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 33c | 178.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 28c | 170.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Under | 66c | 162$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Under | 71c | 159.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0810backed Under | 63c | 154.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 28c | 147.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Under | 64c | 124.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Under | 50c | 121.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…8454backed Under | 58c | 117.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 25c | 105.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 58c | 100.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 45c | 100.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf25…345bbacked Under | 63c | 96.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 22c | 95.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 74c | 93.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fff…76e6backed Under | 64c | 93.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 89.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Under | 54c | 89.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 55c | 87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Over | 38c | 75.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 28c | 75.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 48c | 75.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 30c | 70.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Under | 65c | 67.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 47c | 59.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Under | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 49c | 55.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 49.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 74c | 46.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 40.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 52c | 40.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Over | 29c | 36.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Under | 68c | 34.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 47c | 33.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Over | 44c | 28.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 80c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…7399backed Under | 69c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Under | 62c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…1924backed Under | 75c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.