TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$791,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$708,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $791,939 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d30…a42dbacked Over49c201,352$99,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,097.011560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Over51c112,914$57,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,717.936358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Under50c94,489$47,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,244.497757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c58,834$29,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,574.143,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under20c43,145$8,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,813.672,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under51c39,701$20,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,372.354445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c28,680$13,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,956.986465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under44c21,374$9,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,406.2220845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Under52c19,424$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,100.483250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked Under50c17,947$8,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,973.532213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Under50c17,358$8,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,602.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under52c16,259$8,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,454.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d0…d2f0backed Under51c13,965$7,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,120.2660%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c10,130$5,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,127.231,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Under2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under50c9,895$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.8675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Under40c9,409$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,732.486051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under1c8,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0006549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Over51c7,635$3,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,724.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under50c6,393$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.655843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under53c6,239$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,287.7848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750b…609fbacked Under1c5,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Under1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191a…b47dbacked Under1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick8cpaid+300%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+104.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under51c4,794$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.766842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under52c4,680$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.422138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under51c4,669$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,362.3621355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under50c4,566$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,284.7314055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7549…9745backed Under0c4,563$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under50c4,500$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.0118644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under51c4,474$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.920548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.995461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Under50c3,880$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9401533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Under50c3,684$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.775455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under51c3,680$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.895940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under1c3,523$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.232437.5%9 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+187.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8206744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Under1c3,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Under52c3,333$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.1660%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under49c3,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4602152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over51c2,855$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.814949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under27c2,768$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74233938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under37c2,644$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.7564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c2,560$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.267967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under49c2,526$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.732015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under1c2,522$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.22472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Under1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5af4…183cbacked Under51c2,474$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.781643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under42c2,438$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.231,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb6…9ce6backed Under3c2,384$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c2,224$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.0648658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Under50c1,998$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.12650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under43c1,975$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.211,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc1d…faffbacked Under50c1,940$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked Under50c1,907$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.263020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Over51c1,903$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.541361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Under51c1,705$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under51c1,629$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.414240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under39c1,628$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.794751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Over46c1,576$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.94988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+63.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8bf…345abacked Under49c1,551$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.7911142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under51c1,492$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.1655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over51c1,413$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.523461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under2c1,321$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under2c1,315$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.73240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under51c1,304$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.846854.4%37 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Under49c1,304$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.692642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x726e…e54dbacked Under50c1,298$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c1,211$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.9229855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bb…98b3backed Over47c1,137$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under50c1,077$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.3614652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over51c1,076$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.845024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Under2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+99%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51048146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51063645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51049647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under51c974.88$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.4911049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under51c970.6$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.018158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under49c953.12$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.8933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c952.29$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under52c938.94$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.516453.1%34 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under52c936.53$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.558251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under52c935.17$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.5717749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Under6c898.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.942050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under51c801.9$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.613360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under49c740.44$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.5121540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Under51c691.74$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.822240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under49c688$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.1215747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6726…542fbacked Under49c678.58$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under49c652.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9714254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.