Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79e438e2abd013ce8ce754bd8aa48d969ff9cb564c40042e58f0f03131059e15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfB Stuttgartof VfB Stuttgart, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 906.77$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.74 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Hamburger SV | 67c | 662.97$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.86 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…f034backed VfB Stuttgart | 34c | 576.24$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Hamburger SV | 69c | 424.67$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Hamburger SV | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 35c | 395.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked VfB Stuttgart | 67c | 363.45$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Hamburger SV | 70c | 249.22$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed VfB Stuttgart | 36c | 200.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed VfB Stuttgart | 31c | 182.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked VfB Stuttgart | 32c | 181.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed VfB Stuttgart | 32c | 181.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 32c | 181.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed VfB Stuttgart | 32c | 181.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed VfB Stuttgart | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Hamburger SV | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Hamburger SV | 56c | 133.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hamburger SV | 56c | 100.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Hamburger SV | 15c | 96.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 30c | 96.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed VfB Stuttgart | 35c | 94.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed VfB Stuttgart | 36c | 80.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…9abebacked VfB Stuttgart | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked VfB Stuttgart | 38c | 76.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 32c | 62.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed VfB Stuttgart | 31c | 62.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed VfB Stuttgart | 31c | 62.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 33c | 61.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked VfB Stuttgart | 33c | 61.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed VfB Stuttgart | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed VfB Stuttgart | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed VfB Stuttgart | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Hamburger SV | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed VfB Stuttgart | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Hamburger SV | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…2b45backed Hamburger SV | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Hamburger SV | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Hamburger SV | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.