Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13f3ec555d53eabcb9cbebe17ff7ff7136e4314f036f0e71437a9f53fdcaedae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 11,675$8,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 20c | 10,019$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 2,739$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.16 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Yes | 59c | 1,637$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 44c | 1,097$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.39 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Yes | 59c | 991.93$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.24 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 58c | 420.67$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.69 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 9c | 365.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed No | 43c | 224.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Yes | 57c | 148.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 31c | 137.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 47c | 136.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 51c | 128.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes | 59c | 107.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…3c11backed No | 71c | 81.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 45c | 77.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 68.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Yes | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 54c | 49.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 30c | 46.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…dd35backed No | 73c | 45.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yes | 53c | 39.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 37c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed Yes | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…f42bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 54c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…d6efbacked Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 52c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed No | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.