Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d711047c659a6e3d969a273a5c079170f3285b4d581177a45ed77a28567c641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x966c…9b1abacked No | 61c | 16,279$9,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,397.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…6f95backed Yes | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.98 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Yes | 38c | 7,011$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 5,860$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.12 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe388…9da3backed Yes | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 1,102$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 153 | 61.4%94 W · 59 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 59c | 847$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.27 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 62c | 646.03$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 68c | 539.96$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.47 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed Yes | 39c | 513.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 38c | 473.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.02 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…37ccbacked Yes | 40c | 458$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 62c | 420$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…3b43backed Yes | 4c | 344.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 38c | 328$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 38c | 328$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Yes | 39c | 245$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 41c | 207.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 78c | 205.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc8…6ca6backed No | 59c | 204.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 38c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 40c | 190.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 61c | 164.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 60c | 157.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 41c | 152.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 29c | 141.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Yes | 24c | 135.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Yes | 14c | 128.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…8cddbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 121.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…49c0backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 38c | 109.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…c08abacked Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 60c | 101.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 74c | 98.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…ad9abacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 65c | 94.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…f7dabacked Yes | 38c | 83.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Yes | 33c | 65.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 59c | 64.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…fdcdbacked Yes | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0690…8821backed Yes | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 59c | 56.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…0d86backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…20d8backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…94edbacked Yes | 37c | 52.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…e62fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 68c | 39.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 61c | 35.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 63c | 24.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 62c | 21.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 59c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw?Yes won
- Will PSV win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.