CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d7f43b0606b1e68e8937fd44ba2058f90769c24711da8952434e3b1393da182

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FOKUSof Astralis, FOKUS
Resolved: Jul 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0478…37c3backed Astralis	44c	6,271$2,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,783.59	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed FOKUS	55c	6,001$3,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,700.48	720	46.1%332 W · 388 L	-2.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed FOKUS	58c	3,951$2,274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,677.69	679	51.4%349 W · 330 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked FOKUS	55c	3,781$2,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,709.03	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+4.0wins	+0.17per pick	42cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FOKUS	56c	3,578$2,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,574.95	789	39.5%312 W · 477 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Astralis	44c	3,272$1,434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,433.98	3,259	50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L	+98.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed FOKUS	53c	1,951$1,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$916.85	1,089	50.9%554 W · 535 L	+38.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Astralis	42c	1,931$811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.02	224	49.6%111 W · 113 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Astralis	42c	893$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.06	558	45.7%255 W · 303 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FOKUS	61c	891.55$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.6	5,095	55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L	+119.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FOKUS	57c	784.45$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.54	2,672	47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L	-31.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…3543backed Astralis	43c	778.18$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.14	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Astralis	47c	755.56$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.06	647	48.4%313 W · 334 L	-10.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked Astralis	61c	655.53$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	156	58.3%91 W · 65 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc2…c4d0backed Astralis	46c	652.62$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc62…c963backed FOKUS	62c	516$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.08	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Astralis	37c	450$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	385	57.1%220 W · 165 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked FOKUS	57c	445.99$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.94	229	38.4%88 W · 141 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Astralis	45c	444.44$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	492	51%251 W · 241 L	-21.1wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Astralis	42c	430$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.3	5,876	37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L	+71.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Astralis	47c	411.82$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.32	250	46.8%117 W · 133 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xea7e…f207backed Astralis	47c	400$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a66…fa83backed Astralis	41c	393.84$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked FOKUS	57c	377.62$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.82	447	47.2%211 W · 236 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Astralis	43c	357.4$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.67	562	39.5%222 W · 340 L	-21.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Astralis	38c	300$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	921	45.8%422 W · 499 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FOKUS	56c	300$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	1,007	48.5%488 W · 519 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed Astralis	38c	258$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.04	249	40.6%101 W · 148 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Astralis	44c	250$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.45	1,146	43.5%499 W · 647 L	-17.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Astralis	45c	227.5$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.81	2,223	47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L	-5.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Astralis	37c	204.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.85	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Astralis	45c	202.81$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.26	4,238	49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L	+60.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Astralis	42c	200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	185	49.2%91 W · 94 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Astralis	36c	190$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	577	40.4%233 W · 344 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6aa…4e0ebacked Astralis	47c	180$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.6	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Astralis	28c	178.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	395	38.7%153 W · 242 L	-16.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Astralis	44c	176$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.98	3,236	51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L	+88.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd83…d102backed Astralis	38c	169.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.6	100	47%47 W · 53 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Astralis	44c	141.42$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.22	408	39.2%160 W · 248 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Astralis	45c	140$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	446	43.5%194 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Astralis	45c	139.11$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.6	362	39.2%142 W · 220 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Astralis	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	988	56.1%554 W · 434 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Astralis	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	502	51%256 W · 246 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Astralis	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	198	47.5%94 W · 104 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Astralis	39c	108$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.12	216	53.2%115 W · 101 L	+9.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed Astralis	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	42%29 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed FOKUS	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	687	49.6%341 W · 346 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Astralis	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	608	38.2%232 W · 376 L	+11.2wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b77…6ba1backed Astralis	43c	99.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Astralis	13c	99.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	286	37.4%107 W · 179 L	-19.2wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Astralis	13c	99.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	161	38.5%62 W · 99 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed FOKUS	57c	89.47$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.47	338	44.4%150 W · 188 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6b…a307backed Astralis	61c	88$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.43	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad3…1af6backed Astralis	47c	85.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3416…adaabacked Astralis	47c	80.85$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	289	35.3%102 W · 187 L	-18.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed FOKUS	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	455	44.4%202 W · 253 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed FOKUS	61c	58$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.62	2,030	53.7%1,091 W · 939 L	+6.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed FOKUS	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e48…e8e6backed FOKUS	61c	49.34$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.34	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3c…9f22backed Astralis	47c	44.68$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa7…8332backed Astralis	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2175…4b33backed Astralis	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62cd…7b19backed Astralis	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FOKUS	45c	42.31$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.27	2,365	45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L	-58.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked FOKUS	48c	41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.4	1,591	46.6%741 W · 850 L	+30.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde1d…dfaabacked Astralis	49c	38.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	74	59.5%44 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aa8…9fb3backed Astralis	46c	34.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d6…5e9bbacked Astralis	46c	31.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed FOKUS	62c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	700	60.1%421 W · 279 L	+70.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Astralis	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	211	59.7%126 W · 85 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07e4…186ebacked Astralis	56c	18.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	344	62.2%214 W · 130 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked FOKUS	76c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.84	1,278	71.5%914 W · 364 L	+3.6wins	0.00per pick	71cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FOKUS	63c	15.88$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.88	2,645	51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L	+21.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)this page
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FOKUS (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group BAstralis won
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FOKUS - Map 1 WinnerFOKUS won
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FOKUS - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)FOKUS won
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)FOKUS won
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)Astralis won
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event