MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8cccd67c5dd41230b5a19ef2532d08e261cfae8494ddae90530efdf37ad794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Pirates, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65e4…a3bdbacked Pirates | 45c | 141,080$63,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,359.99 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Twins | 55c | 48,888$26,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,955.16 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Twins | 55c | 35,000$19,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,750 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 55c | 26,000$14,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,700 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Twins | 55c | 8,100$4,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 55c | 6,040$3,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 55c | 4,828$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.07 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 19c | 2,872$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.02 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 54c | 2,698$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.1 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Twins | 53c | 2,673$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.37 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 56c | 2,500$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Pirates | 43c | 2,384$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.89 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Twins | 56c | 2,250$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Pirates | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Twins | 55c | 1,951$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.04 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Twins | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked Pirates | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Pirates | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pirates | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Twins | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Twins | 54c | 995.35$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Pirates | 50c | 995.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Pirates | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Twins | 50c | 593.79$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.83 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pirates | 45c | 517.97$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.91 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Twins | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Twins | 59c | 441.38$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.86 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Pirates | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Twins | 56c | 285.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 575 | 45.9%264 W · 311 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Pirates | 11c | 265$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Pirates | 18c | 260$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Pirates | 46c | 250$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Pirates | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pirates | 56c | 220$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Twins | 55c | 199.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Twins | 56c | 191.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Twins | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Pirates | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 224 | 2.7%6 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Twins | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Pirates | 25c | 149.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pirates | 28c | 148.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Twins | 52c | 140.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Twins | 57c | 137.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 259 | 52.5%136 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Pirates | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Twins | 54c | 109.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Twins | 53c | 107.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | -13.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pirates | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…af3bbacked Twins | 53c | 93.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 55c | 87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Pirates | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Pirates | 38c | 78.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…d50cbacked Pirates | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Pirates | 56c | 71.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 327 | 54.7%179 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pirates | 56c | 71.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…b7b6backed Twins | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Pirates | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 313 | 47.9%150 W · 163 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Twins | 56c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Twins | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…aebebacked Pirates | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Twins | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Pirates | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…8652backed Twins | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Pirates | 46c | 42.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…e7ddbacked Twins | 79c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 169 | 83.4%141 W · 28 L | +20.1wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Twins | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Twins | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…e786backed Twins | 54c | 34.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…0e11backed Twins | 57c | 29.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 429 | 55%236 W · 193 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…4ab8backed Pirates | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Twins | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Twins | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.