TailMyPicks
Market

Serie A · resolved market

Venezia FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,498 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34a1…7622backed Under22c7,384$1,646 inLost-$1,646.38837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5952…db2fbacked Under8c3,000$240 inLost-$2401010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Under11c2,252$250 inLost-$2501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under8c1,100$88 inLost-$8822551.6%116 W · 109 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under9c1,000$90 inLost-$902748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under21c864.7$183 inLost-$183.2412350.4%62 W · 61 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under22c675.68$150 inLost-$1501258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2c8…142bbacked Under9c397$36 inLost-$35.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Under22c200$44 inLost-$44.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under18c176.23$32 inLost-$32.21,98139.8%788 W · 1,193 L-7.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb239…80b4backed Under22c100$22 inLost-$21.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2276…a73abacked Under11c100$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…f72abacked Over79c50$40 inWon+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Over78c50$39 inWon+$11.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8227…f436backed Over79c27.88$22 inWon+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Over79c27.59$22 inWon+$5.742166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over79c20$16 inWon+$4.131747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Over78c19.28$15 inWon+$4.28977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+51.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.