Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1bbba57276ef5cb4c61e03cbdd8f2d24cdc696fbc22041950479c711a44299

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: NRGof NRG, 100 Thieves
Resolved: Feb 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,172 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Valorant
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4762…ba70backed NRG	63c	4,744$3,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,738.89	135	58.5%79 W · 56 L	+11.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 100 Thieves	33c	2,000$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	417	34.8%145 W · 272 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 100 Thieves	36c	1,752$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.95	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked NRG	80c	1,631$1,303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.63	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed NRG	63c	1,598$1,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.39	68	47.1%32 W · 36 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc10a…45bfbacked 100 Thieves	20c	1,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 100 Thieves	37c	1,500$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555	169	52.1%88 W · 81 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed NRG	61c	1,500$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$584.99	249	46.2%115 W · 134 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked 100 Thieves	37c	1,495$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.15	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed NRG	63c	1,304$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.48	621	56.4%350 W · 271 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked 100 Thieves	38c	1,076$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.29	297	33.3%99 W · 198 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed 100 Thieves	36c	1,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.2wins	-0.32per pick	42cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked NRG	67c	1,000$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330	655	59.4%389 W · 266 L	+50.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed 100 Thieves	36c	999.99$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	285	41.1%117 W · 168 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 100 Thieves	32c	860.09$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.38	702	51.3%360 W · 342 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked 100 Thieves	39c	800$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	127	50.4%64 W · 63 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62b…625dbacked NRG	64c	781.25$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.25	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-6.7wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed 100 Thieves	38c	699.76$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.91	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed 100 Thieves	39c	678.5$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.62	260	50%130 W · 130 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed NRG	77c	676.04$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.7wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed 100 Thieves	36c	625.83$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.99	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked NRG	65c	584.99$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.75	244	57.8%141 W · 103 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed 100 Thieves	35c	579.99$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	161	42.9%69 W · 92 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed 100 Thieves	20c	541.01$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.15	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed NRG	63c	520.74$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.16	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed NRG	63c	474.3$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.49	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked 100 Thieves	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	308	28.2%87 W · 221 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed NRG	78c	318.32$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.45	281	51.6%145 W · 136 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked 100 Thieves	31c	315$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.25	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed 100 Thieves	37c	300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	238	47.9%114 W · 124 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked 100 Thieves	39c	254$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	211	44.1%93 W · 118 L	-13.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed NRG	63c	250$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.55	43	65.1%28 W · 15 L	+7.1wins	+0.16per pick	49cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb14c…7355backed NRG	62c	241.94$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.94	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed NRG	78c	225.91$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.86	931	48.1%448 W · 483 L	-11.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaf…bb0cbacked 100 Thieves	18c	220$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.35	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked NRG	60c	219$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.6	267	38.2%102 W · 165 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked NRG	66c	205.05$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.05	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked NRG	62c	200.7$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7034…bcf8backed 100 Thieves	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked NRG	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	867	47.5%412 W · 455 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed NRG	74c	195$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.33	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked NRG	63c	190$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.3	337	53.1%179 W · 158 L	+16.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0128…d18abacked 100 Thieves	39c	187$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.93	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a56…c6e0backed NRG	63c	158.54$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.66	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed NRG	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	45	60%27 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…a571backed 100 Thieves	40c	151.24$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf642…47c8backed NRG	62c	137.56$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.27	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef0…7adebacked 100 Thieves	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed NRG	62c	102$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.86	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked 100 Thieves	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	257	45.9%118 W · 139 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked 100 Thieves	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	140	37.9%53 W · 87 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ee…eb4fbacked 100 Thieves	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7124…93eabacked 100 Thieves	33c	94.82$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed 100 Thieves	17c	92.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x205a…08b3backed NRG	62c	81.74$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.06	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	59cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f8b…a0cabacked NRG	63c	79.37$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.37	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4f…a438backed NRG	64c	78.45$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.45	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e03…c1c8backed NRG	63c	77.75$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.77	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-59%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7215…7cb0backed NRG	63c	74.4$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.53	47	74.5%35 W · 12 L	+9.3wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed 100 Thieves	27c	73.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	149	57.7%86 W · 63 L	+10.5wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed 100 Thieves	34c	65.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d5…ea80backed NRG	79c	63.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.67	33	72.7%24 W · 9 L	+4.7wins	+0.14per pick	59cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed 100 Thieves	38c	52.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	75	30.7%23 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972c…c2e2backed NRG	78c	47.71$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	59cpaid	-30%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab5f…f76ebacked NRG	64c	47.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.15	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed NRG	80c	42$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.58	147	57.8%85 W · 62 L	+13.3wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x063f…d10fbacked 100 Thieves	39c	38.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked NRG	69c	36.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed 100 Thieves	35c	32.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15cc…7f61backed NRG	63c	31.95$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.95	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+55.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8666…a368backed 100 Thieves	38c	31.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe7…1311backed NRG	62c	30.52$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-8.0wins	-0.26per pick	58cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa04e…3550backed NRG	61c	27.04$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.45	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa550…d2e0backed NRG	62c	24.19$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.19	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ee3…f07ebacked NRG	78c	21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.62	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	67cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ce…e90bbacked NRG	78c	20.02$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa4…888cbacked NRG	63c	19.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed NRG	66c	19$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.46	175	57.1%100 W · 75 L	+15.2wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8006…e157backed NRG	80c	18.77$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.77	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	64cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98b7…4590backed NRG	62c	18.05$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.86	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ce…8945backed NRG	63c	15.83$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.83	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6937…2561backed NRG	74c	15.1$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed NRG	78c	14.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.16	1,746	46.2%806 W · 940 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsthis page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)NRG won
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 WinnerNRG won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event