TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Argentina Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tomas Etcheverry

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Etcheverryof Burruchaga, Etcheverry
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$299,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Burruchaga18c52,543$9,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,534.980938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Burruchaga23c38,426$8,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,669.072,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Etcheverry58c22,447$13,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,360.0648851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Burruchaga35c9,232$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.77,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Burruchaga50c8,783$4,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,397.8928444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Etcheverry73c8,553$6,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.642,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Etcheverry59c7,500$4,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.9944360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Burruchaga42c4,552$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.1355646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Etcheverry67c4,308$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.0697046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Burruchaga27c4,300$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.493055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Etcheverry64c4,068$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.351,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Etcheverry74c3,412$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.7936968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Etcheverry59c3,170$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.7824438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Etcheverry79c2,994$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.685563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Etcheverry68c2,984$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.93,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Etcheverry53c2,833$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.021,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Burruchaga42c2,200$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.9957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Etcheverry56c2,085$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.938,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Etcheverry52c2,022$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.5944754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Burruchaga2c1,908$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.92,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Etcheverry61c1,648$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.335853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Burruchaga48c1,496$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.0918439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Burruchaga38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.081,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Etcheverry57c1,276$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.612752%66 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Burruchaga50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed Etcheverry51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4905343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Etcheverry62c987.79$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.361,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Etcheverry73c960.3$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.182,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x640b…ec00backed Burruchaga45c955.2$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.799738.1%37 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Etcheverry58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.0712627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Burruchaga39c821.17$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9721843.1%94 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Etcheverry64c777.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Burruchaga16c774.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9311123.4%26 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Burruchaga45c756.83$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.596035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Burruchaga40c752.89$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.72,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Etcheverry63c752$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.2443051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Burruchaga52c733.68$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5125556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Etcheverry63c700$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25910557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Burruchaga37c673.29$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Burruchaga40c664.69$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8252037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Etcheverry71c636$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3769249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Etcheverry53c570.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9765651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4371…4fd9backed Etcheverry61c521.03$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.29749.5%48 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Burruchaga50c490$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0315244.1%67 W · 85 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Etcheverry63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1954138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Burruchaga37c447.29$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16437339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Burruchaga22c436.36$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9613923.7%33 W · 106 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed Burruchaga41c435.57$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3513338.3%51 W · 82 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Burruchaga23c434.22$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Etcheverry51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1663247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Etcheverry77c387$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2925542%107 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Etcheverry56c357.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.561,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Burruchaga41c346.89$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7881349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Etcheverry71c337.41$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4126247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Burruchaga41c316.36$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.246,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Etcheverry60c315.85$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8511046.4%51 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Etcheverry69c303.29$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1488455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Burruchaga41c299.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Etcheverry53c295.26$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7784736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Etcheverry61c274.64$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1113052.3%68 W · 62 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Burruchaga38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Burruchaga18c242.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Etcheverry59c241.38$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3835730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16c…9d62backed Burruchaga42c240.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4635248.6%171 W · 181 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed Burruchaga44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-50%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Burruchaga44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024826.2%65 W · 183 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Etcheverry56c217.28$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8165652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Etcheverry76c216$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…9815backed Burruchaga15c212$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Etcheverry52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3152460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Burruchaga37c189$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.931,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe575…8b12backed Etcheverry55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.827941.8%33 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5baf…3e56backed Etcheverry58c172.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3465840.9%269 W · 389 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8f…8ed0backed Burruchaga59c170.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Etcheverry59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4947946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c5…e975backed Etcheverry74c162.16$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.161291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.8wins+0.40per pick52cpaid+107.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1eef…dc2ebacked Etcheverry71c160$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.42281.8%18 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Etcheverry64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2513652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…6405backed Burruchaga13c153.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Etcheverry66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5237444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Etcheverry57c135.94$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.731,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x430b…6e64backed Etcheverry55c127.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2720447.5%97 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Burruchaga38c125.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.811435.1%40 W · 74 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Etcheverry52c123.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0872542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…c206backed Burruchaga17c119.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208619.8%17 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Burruchaga50c114.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.562,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb570…f7cdbacked Burruchaga27c114.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.942347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Burruchaga45c113.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.951,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Burruchaga24c109.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7316132.3%52 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Etcheverry57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.827941.8%33 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry57c103.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.92,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Etcheverry78c101.01$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.218551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Etcheverry61c100.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.241,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Etcheverry53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4751539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Burruchaga37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3716044.4%71 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Burruchaga36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Burruchaga36c99.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.893,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Burruchaga64c99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4730639.9%122 W · 184 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked Etcheverry53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3427749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Burruchaga38c90.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0913138.9%51 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.