TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Royals vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Royals, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 521 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Guardians50c29,799$14,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,887.5948254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Royals50c20,617$10,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,308.1660451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Guardians51c15,550$7,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,566.59666.7%64 W · 32 L+16.4wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Royals48c14,052$6,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,740.6463152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Royals48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80014747.6%70 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Guardians68c7,729$5,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.4678445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Royals49c6,466$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.8733554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Royals46c5,543$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.5934245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Royals27c5,198$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.71,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Guardians52c4,516$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.7633845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Guardians72c4,197$3,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.4521847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb7…6e92backed Guardians52c3,827$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.921030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Guardians51c3,800$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.9995850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Royals12c3,384$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.3193240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians77c3,212$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.92,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians53c3,117$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.11,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals49c3,020$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4802,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Royals50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…1390backed Guardians52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…1742backed Royals31c2,787$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.842138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Guardians50c2,500$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24513247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Royals50c2,409$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.321643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Guardians50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians78c1,615$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.621,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Guardians49c1,530$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.31,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Guardians51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73532651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Guardians53c1,275$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.2430151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cd…d0b5backed Royals47c1,130$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.170%0 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8156…6b4dbacked Guardians53c1,115$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Royals47c1,111$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.1798149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c4…f5f2backed Guardians53c1,085$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d10…daebbacked Royals47c1,070$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Royals16c1,030$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9215033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Royals47c1,004$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.1124253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Royals37c1,000$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.356538.5%25 W · 40 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Royals46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Royals50c975$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.520748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Royals18c897.3$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.66,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Guardians53c744$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1673149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Royals37c743.99$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.3879740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Guardians54c740$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.41,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians53c731$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.351,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Royals48c721.01$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.081,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Royals48c654.81$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3170946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Guardians54c634.85$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.388562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians76c616.17$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2776456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Royals12c579.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Royals51c566$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.6626355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Guardians54c556.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.894057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Guardians53c522.94$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.781,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Guardians53c516.11$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.113650%18 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Royals49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24527254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Guardians54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9631254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Royals47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians64c423.65$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.091,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Guardians51c417.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.8127751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa5…be51backed Guardians52c412$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6162…f49bbacked Royals49c411.94$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.851353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Guardians52c394.23$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2310451%53 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Royals50c394$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19720747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Guardians54c388.89$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals47c385.42$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.151,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Guardians54c375$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.539056.9%222 W · 168 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Guardians52c361.54$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.543073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+49.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x834b…a37ebacked Guardians54c296.3$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.32263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45c2…0f74backed Royals18c284.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Guardians52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Guardians54c222.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3514055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Guardians54c209.26$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2699951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Royals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Royals26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5245732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Guardians50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10066751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42e8…e4e6backed Guardians54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc805…e5dbbacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcff…0e58backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945048%24 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…78e3backed Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac5…3536backed Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0f…f1dcbacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1243…18cfbacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…502ebacked Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…8364backed Guardians53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…05fabacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…cd16backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945149%25 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4463…7565backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ade…3223backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9788…ad77backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3070…218cbacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18fa…4a5ebacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec8b…716ebacked Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945040%20 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x247e…3a07backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.