Champions League · resolved market
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6c960c63d408604b6a25461c34f87729f0758b32ba3f42b2fb22b9ba9e2cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 24c | 4,604$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.15 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 1,930$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.84 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,326$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.73 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…6cf3backed Over | 39c | 1,250$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 1,075$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.17 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Over | 35c | 1,024$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…71a3backed Over | 37c | 1,020$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 906.99$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.59 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…04fabacked Over | 38c | 813.47$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 661.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 409$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 78c | 148.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 17c | 132.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 8c | 126.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 63c | 119.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +72%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 62c | 114$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 26c | 109.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 62c | 98.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 12c | 87.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 70.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 79c | 67.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 77c | 54.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 77c | 48.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 79c | 43.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 38c | 42.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 76c | 37.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 78c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Under | 65c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Under | 70c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…fe04backed Under | 79c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva won
- Spread: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.