MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x383e55c832bb82e968e1e0dee7eee4a9b424750ababf8e3b739dc5dac3c878bb

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,206 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over	34c	7,977$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	25c	5,437$1,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,342.58	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	76c	4,169$3,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.82	723	35.5%257 W · 466 L	-28.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	30c	3,111$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.14	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	66c	2,396$1,582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$814.8	633	46.3%293 W · 340 L	-21.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	28c	2,385$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.5	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	67c	2,089$1,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$699.13	338	44.7%151 W · 187 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	66c	1,320$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.71	318	47.5%151 W · 167 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked Over	29c	1,274$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	18c	1,234$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.18	170	53.5%91 W · 79 L	+9.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	66c	1,136$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.24	266	45.9%122 W · 144 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	33c	1,014$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.62	137	38.7%53 W · 84 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	66c	803.43$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.17	432	52.3%226 W · 206 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	67c	769$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.55	520	46.7%243 W · 277 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Over	32c	620.39$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.53	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under	68c	577.1$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.67	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under	68c	546.85$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.46	58	56.9%33 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under	69c	525.08$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.53	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	64cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	28c	506.21$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.75	328	43.6%143 W · 185 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under	66c	407.51$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.55	120	39.2%47 W · 73 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under	66c	390$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	136	49.3%67 W · 69 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over	7c	388.02$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	66c	378$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.52	502	47.2%237 W · 265 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	67c	378$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.79	607	48.4%294 W · 313 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	33c	326.04$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.65	270	31.5%85 W · 185 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Under	67c	298.51$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.51	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	71cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	73c	270.32$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.14	230	31.7%73 W · 157 L	-18.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	66c	268.01$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.12	403	50.9%205 W · 198 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f0…a0b1backed Under	77c	150.31$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.57	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	67cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…85fbbacked Under	79c	136.01$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.56	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	66cpaid	+35%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	16c	119.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	212	17%36 W · 176 L	-37.2wins	-0.18per pick	35cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	34c	114$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	202	41.6%84 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over	33c	114$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	242	52.5%127 W · 115 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Under	71c	113.75$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.42	62	59.7%37 W · 25 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	33c	111.94$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	299	49.5%148 W · 151 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	32c	109.42$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.48	107	43.9%47 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over	33c	108$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+9.2wins	+0.24per pick	34cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Under	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe707…e0cfbacked Under	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over	31c	96.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d9c…601abacked Over	34c	84.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	15c	82.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	601	36.9%222 W · 379 L	-28.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dea…774cbacked Under	68c	78.75$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	69cpaid	+46%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under	66c	75.03$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.51	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over	31c	74.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.91	170	58.8%100 W · 70 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under	66c	70.45$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.95	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	26c	65.47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	274	50.7%139 W · 135 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	33c	65.12$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	125	51.2%64 W · 61 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Over	34c	52.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	37cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over	34c	52.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	39cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18cd…b710backed Over	21c	51.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	146	45.9%67 W · 79 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce80…c5efbacked Over	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b3…ed60backed Over	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfe…d954backed Over	30c	46.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x975c…6343backed Over	30c	45.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	44cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over	31c	44.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	308	56.8%175 W · 133 L	+11.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under	68c	44$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Over	31c	42.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23f8…2c9abacked Under	79c	41.77$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.77	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over	34c	40.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.73	159	54.7%87 W · 72 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over	30c	38.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	100	46%46 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under	64c	37.41$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.47	440	33.9%149 W · 291 L	-12.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over	31c	37.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Over	32c	35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	149	42.3%63 W · 86 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd852…6267backed Over	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f78…3546backed Over	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under	70c	23.57$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.07	117	41%48 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under	71c	22.6$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.46	40	60%24 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccb7…0477backed Under	65c	18.31$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.41	31	83.9%26 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	74cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under	70c	16.91$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.07	97	49.5%48 W · 49 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Under	72c	15.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under	72c	15.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.22	39	74.4%29 W · 10 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	61cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Under	68c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.85	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5this page
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 0.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva O/U 1.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva O/U 2.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva won
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva won
Spread: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Spread: MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event