NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400801f82f6e7a188268dfc37872892ccfa75648b02dbb15b999e4bc1258dcbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,425 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 2,139$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.02 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 1,956$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.6 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 66c | 918.81$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.8 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 830$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.25 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 829$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 748.39$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 26c | 472.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 57c | 305.52$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 56c | 280$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 136 | 38.2%52 W · 84 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 43c | 253.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 164.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 37c | 99.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 43c | 72.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 59c | 66.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 63.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 62.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 43c | 52.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…01afbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 43c | 30.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…e2d0backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 53c | 20.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Raptors won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Raptors vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.