NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31eba8bb0b7fcceb16759808d8176df239515a22b1ff96ccf11fbb7b7621b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 4,900$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 2,248$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.04 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors | 58c | 1,784$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.64 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Raptors | 60c | 1,439$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.15 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Timberwolves | 41c | 1,428$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.52 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Timberwolves | 45c | 1,203$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Raptors | 58c | 1,186$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.89 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Raptors | 61c | 1,185$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.45 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Timberwolves | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors | 62c | 922.43$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.89 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raptors | 60c | 921$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.6 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 39c | 840.86$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Raptors | 37c | 753.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.22 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Raptors | 17c | 749.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 265 | 30.9%82 W · 183 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Timberwolves | 40c | 659$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.4 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 42c | 630.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.18 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 45c | 569.33$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.13 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Raptors | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -15.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Raptors | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Raptors | 45c | 480.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 405.82$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 57c | 382.2$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Timberwolves | 42c | 363.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.44 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Raptors | 29c | 355.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Raptors | 23c | 340.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Timberwolves | 60c | 311.78$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors | 17c | 204.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 50c | 187.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…35dcbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 177.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +313.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 171$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Timberwolves | 36c | 162.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Raptors | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Raptors | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Raptors | 17c | 147.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves | 37c | 134.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Raptors | 40c | 107.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Raptors | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 79.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Timberwolves | 37c | 79.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 43c | 70.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Timberwolves | 44c | 65.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Timberwolves | 36c | 65.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Timberwolves | 41c | 62.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 42c | 62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Raptors | 20c | 55.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 40c | 55.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…187fbacked Timberwolves | 73c | 54.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Raptors | 70c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Timberwolves | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Raptors | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Raptors | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Raptors | 22c | 46.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…01afbacked Raptors | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Timberwolves | 36c | 42.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Timberwolves | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Raptors | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…cc8cbacked Raptors | 66c | 28.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 385 | 40.3%155 W · 230 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…a435backed Raptors | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Raptors won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Raptors vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.