TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,867 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over46c6,809$3,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,13220948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Under54c6,087$3,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.1421250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Over46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84012745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under54c3,810$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.4441553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over48c2,617$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.922,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under54c1,785$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.984,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over45c1,498$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.158347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under62c1,309$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under53c1,226$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4933146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee08…c228backed Over50c976$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5c…ecbbbacked Over50c936$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe475…4768backed Under50c889$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa83d…28b0backed Under50c884$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under56c856.21$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.386,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…0767backed Over50c792$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4274…64edbacked Under50c752$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1611…3b81backed Over50c707$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c681.91$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d38…da5abacked Under50c654$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over23c638$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9526638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Over48c519.65$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4321045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c21…9b8abacked Under52c478.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.852740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over48c439.33$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4791846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…b727backed Over50c413$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over46c405$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.43,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c397.9$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.034,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over46c384.05$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.663,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over46c358.27$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.82,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under64c351.56$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5665872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under52c332.49$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.64,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over36c312.69$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.221,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ae…0729backed Under50c310$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over44c170.46$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.262,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over46c152$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.922,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under51c143.43$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.673,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under53c140$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.842853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4839435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x823b…96c9backed Under50c91$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over46c88.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.62,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Under57c87.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.225541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under45c80.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.312,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over34c74.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Under47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14025%10 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe634…fae1backed Under54c65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under54c62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5246447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebe…a934backed Under50c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.365630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8584150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf3…d84dbacked Under50c52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabae…d62dbacked Over48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248145.7%37 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under50c46.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0869149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under55c44.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9852552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c7…dd9ebacked Under50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3637…8663backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over46c39.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0464844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.485,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f61…5905backed Under50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Over47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0432747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Over47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0432947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461f…987cbacked Under50c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over48c31.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3114860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Under54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.896956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Over46c28.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9620350.2%102 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under56c24.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.651,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c1…d3c8backed Under50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108328.9%24 W · 59 L-14.6wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under54c18.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.639943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.