Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400ea76e4e18b6cf9e014499ad85da597316e7036ad07ddba54f9501d58f1c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,567$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 520.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 460$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 401.03$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 290$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 289.97$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 280.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 236$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 189.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 167.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 152.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 143.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 56c | 141.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 78c | 131$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 128.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 112$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 108.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 102.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 100.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 91.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 44c | 91.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 89.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 83.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 14c | 82.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 43c | 82.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 67.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 44c | 57.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 55.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 55.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 45c | 55.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 52.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 50.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 40.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 44c | 38.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…8e89backed No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 35.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 59c | 35.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 45c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 31.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 53c | 29.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 44c | 27.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 27.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 46c | 26.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 44c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 43c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…cecabacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 24.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 22.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.