Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeb8350df0326e4852ce2083a941def4c6b0ff3f72312253f8ee6bf6105e426f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 301.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 290$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 164.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 149.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 139.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 129.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 126.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 117.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 33c | 114.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 108.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 107.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 94.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 91.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 89.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 88.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 53c | 74.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 73.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 72.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 68.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 33c | 58.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 55.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 55.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 54.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 53.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 52.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 50.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 49.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 78c | 49.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 48.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 45.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 72c | 45.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 45.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 29c | 44.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 28c | 44.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 43.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 42.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 41.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 40.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 39.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 39.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 27c | 37.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 36.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 35.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 34.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 39c | 29.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…68d8backed Yes | 34c | 29.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 75c | 22.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 22.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 67c | 19.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 55c | 18.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed No | 74c | 15.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 14.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 14.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.