Fifa International · resolved market
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x408ef56959719e2b42593f315bb4c64521cc2208c17effe3b4ae3c91a7cf125b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 51c | 1,333$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.02 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 49c | 404.08$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6642…eea1backed Yes | 49c | 302.04$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 52c | 281.64$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 46c | 256.28$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 49c | 253.88$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 54c | 154.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 50c | 136.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 52c | 122.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…4ef4backed Yes | 49c | 101.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…c7dbbacked Yes | 51c | 98.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ef…19aebacked Yes | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…d287backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…3b43backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…1018backed No | 52c | 49.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 51c | 49.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 54c | 48.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…e3a8backed Yes | 52c | 48.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 45.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 55c | 45.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…653abacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed No | 49c | 26.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 128 | 71.9%92 W · 36 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assiststhis page
- Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goalsNo won
- Angelo Stiller: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ goalsNo won
- Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ goalsYes won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsYes won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jonathan Tah: 1+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assistsYes won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Maximilian Beier: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.