Fifa International · resolved market
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa05835d85625425643542127c18c252a0c61a5f6cdd74cd2ae7dcce5e5612156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed No | 54c | 3,753$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.53 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,151$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.25 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Yes | 46c | 1,032$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 52c | 855.98$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.87 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 45c | 353.64$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 47c | 298.92$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed No | 48c | 249.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 128 | 71.9%92 W · 36 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 51c | 233.27$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 46c | 202.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…72f4backed Yes | 46c | 196.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…db6dbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 51c | 174.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…ceb0backed Yes | 59c | 173.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…e8debacked Yes | 53c | 165.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 53c | 163.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 48c | 130.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 48c | 122.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…b641backed Yes | 46c | 107.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…dffbbacked Yes | 48c | 98.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 91.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 49c | 89.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…94d3backed Yes | 46c | 78.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 48c | 73.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…973fbacked Yes | 46c | 70.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…3705backed No | 51c | 68.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 48c | 67.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…f4edbacked Yes | 47c | 63.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…1652backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…d2c5backed Yes | 41c | 60.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…e1dfbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…5d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…fef3backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc97…7172backed Yes | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…c427backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 45c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 40.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d6…2109backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…0296backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 48c | 32.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 209 | 68.4%143 W · 66 L | +21.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…17b9backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…5349backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…b3b2backed Yes | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…8c3fbacked Yes | 47c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 333 | 45.3%151 W · 182 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…dbaebacked Yes | 46c | 23.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsthis page
- Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goalsNo won
- Angelo Stiller: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ goalsNo won
- Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ goalsYes won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assistsYes won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsYes won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jonathan Tah: 1+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assistsYes won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Maximilian Beier: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.