Fifa International · resolved market
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05b3df4f787a6019853d22c6536bf37dd4125c4c559ef613bb4017d9cf99f903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 50c | 5,252$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.8 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502e…5442backed Yes | 51c | 1,950$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 51c | 1,020$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.54 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 49c | 979.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Yes | 54c | 926.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.31 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 49c | 699.99$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 48c | 511.56$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.97 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6642…eea1backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…c2c1backed Yes | 48c | 414.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc790…cbd2backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed No | 51c | 392.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 49c | 384.28$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 370.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 45c | 309.09$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…29a4backed Yes | 52c | 287.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Yes | 55c | 233$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 47c | 211.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…72f4backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Yes | 52c | 192.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…2242backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…808ebacked Yes | 48c | 168.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 47c | 143.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 48c | 143.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 122.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 51c | 110.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…3cedbacked Yes | 53c | 106.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 291 | 38.5%112 W · 179 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…ccf0backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…db6dbacked Yes | 55c | 91.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4a…044ebacked Yes | 53c | 88.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 35c | 67.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…dd8bbacked Yes | 46c | 62.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…1652backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3595backed Yes | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +801.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 256 | 39.1%100 W · 156 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…d118backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…dcf6backed Yes | 54c | 46.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…dffbbacked Yes | 53c | 44.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…c427backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 48c | 37.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 48c | 37.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…4448backed Yes | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 333 | 45.3%151 W · 182 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed No | 48c | 30.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +9.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…5e6dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…0736backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 315 | 43.5%137 W · 178 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…542bbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 27.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…bb46backed Yes | 48c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…f863backed Yes | 50c | 21.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsthis page
- Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goalsNo won
- Angelo Stiller: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ goalsNo won
- Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Felix Nmecha: 1+ goalsYes won
- Felix Nmecha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assistsYes won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jonathan Tah: 1+ goalsNo won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assistsYes won
- Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Maximilian Beier: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.