Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40aae8c61a31a35cfc791c5ae80e675b477005210b1f02712048afc9aae775cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 1,230$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 541.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.96 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 510.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.37 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 395.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.63 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 351.36$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.34 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 42c | 311.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.8 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 285.25$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 74c | 262.55$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 185.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 44c | 174.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 168.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 12c | 168$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 32c | 156.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 311 | 19.6%61 W · 250 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 154.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 69c | 151.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 28c | 144.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 140.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 23c | 139.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 126.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 125.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 122.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…a075backed Yes | 36c | 117.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 29c | 116.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 27c | 115.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 75c | 113.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 107.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 77c | 103.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 93.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 90.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 87.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 49c | 86.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 22c | 84.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 80.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 78.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 68.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 67.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 62.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 33c | 62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 60.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 21c | 51.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 27c | 47.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 55c | 42.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 41.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 37.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 36.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 35.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…8493backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…9da7backed No | 65c | 33.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 65c | 25.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 110 | 72.7%80 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,322 | 75.9%1,004 W · 318 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 76c | 16.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 73c | 15.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 15.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.