Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce92bac723ee4528c0b143de54cc121c225c992542c52cbf1767ce392d5c8da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf928…2da3backed Yes | 72c | 1,066$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 62c | 830.45$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.63 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 25c | 362.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.06 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 76c | 331.6$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 28c | 308.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.35 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 301.02$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 72c | 272.92$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 265.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.27 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 61c | 255.26$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.61 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 222.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 219.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 47c | 196.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 39c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 55c | 150.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 141.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 360 | 32.2%116 W · 244 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 117.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 98.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 93.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 30c | 90.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 89.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 57c | 82.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 72.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 68c | 67.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 64.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 56.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 36c | 55.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 50c | 50.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 49.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 48.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 48.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 40c | 48.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 47.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 34c | 46.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked No | 40c | 44.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 41.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 41c | 41.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…a075backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 56c | 39.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 55c | 39.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 38.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 39c | 37.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 37.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 508 | 60.8%309 W · 199 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 37.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 35.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 35.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 32.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 57c | 28.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 40c | 24.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 42c | 24.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 22.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 46c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e366backed Yes | 75c | 21.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 62c | 16.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,322 | 75.9%1,004 W · 318 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.