NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40be82c0348e6a95f40272acf89705f13c536eeaa0db424de53f8d78500aef0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb000…d219backed Under | 42c | 192$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…8f91backed Under | 42c | 191$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…10c4backed Under | 42c | 186$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…753fbacked Over | 58c | 179$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…4d81backed Over | 58c | 178$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e6…8e70backed Over | 58c | 176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…815cbacked Under | 42c | 175$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…232fbacked Under | 42c | 171$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Under | 42c | 171$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…fe60backed Over | 58c | 164$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…50e8backed Under | 42c | 164$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…2fd1backed Over | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Under | 42c | 163$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Under | 43c | 161$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Over | 58c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…2a6fbacked Over | 58c | 158$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Under | 42c | 157$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb332…c5aabacked Over | 57c | 154$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…6d37backed Over | 58c | 153$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5072…c02abacked Over | 58c | 142$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 41c | 43.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5this page
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 242.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.