TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,099 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83b9…6124backed Over59c211$125 inLost-$125.2336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under41c199.73$82 inWon+$117.8434645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0237…958cbacked Under43c185$80 inWon+$105.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a6…012bbacked Under43c180$77 inWon+$102.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6e…401cbacked Over57c175$100 inLost-$99.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9784…94ddbacked Under44c174$77 inWon+$97.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c30…0bf3backed Over57c170$97 inLost-$96.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa29d…fbc0backed Over56c166$93 inLost-$92.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under40c95$38 inWon+$572,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Over59c84.73$50 inLost-$49.996065%39 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under42c55.09$23 inWon+$32.092,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under41c37.39$15 inWon+$22.181,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under50c37$19 inWon+$18.51,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4234…6b87backed Over57c35.09$20 inLost-$204055%22 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over60c25$15 inLost-$1541556.9%236 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over59c20$12 inLost-$11.845251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.