NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82aeec1146030e64a1663b513c01e99af9f348952377ce14fecb850999b50d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 51c | 36,342$18,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,640.33 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 14,361$6,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,452.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 4,896$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 49c | 3,456$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.56 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Under | 52c | 1,555$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.39 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.02 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 877$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 867.52$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.11 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…36a0backed Over | 51c | 734.69$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…7894backed Under | 49c | 734.69$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 729$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.94 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 48c | 645.83$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.83 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 50c | 623$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.73 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Over | 51c | 619.31$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.85 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…3a70backed Under | 51c | 580$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…4332backed Over | 49c | 580$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 494$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 47c | 426$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 419.53$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 49c | 341.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 207.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…94ddbacked Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d854backed Under | 50c | 179$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Under | 48c | 159.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 54c | 121.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 50c | 97.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 94.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…cc43backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 54c | 73.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 54c | 65.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Over | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Under | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 679 | 49.8%338 W · 341 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 47c | 30.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…5a74backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…e7f9backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 48c | 29.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6169backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…ba00backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…9c44backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 242.5this page
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.