TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,108 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68df…4815backed Kings31c1,396$433 inLost-$432.762240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c0…93fdbacked Kings26c1,346$348 inLost-$3487038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Nuggets74c1,250$923 inWon+$327.530947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Nuggets73c742.27$545 inWon+$197.1947144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca5…6d0cbacked Kings27c608$163 inLost-$162.611741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Kings15c426.67$64 inLost-$647140.8%29 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nuggets64c280$179 inWon+$100.81,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Kings36c280$101 inLost-$100.820034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd3…d500backed Kings49c257.65$126 inLost-$1261735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Nuggets73c203$148 inWon+$54.8128940.8%118 W · 171 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nuggets74c192.85$143 inWon+$49.492,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cb…9c55backed Nuggets68c147.06$100 inWon+$47.067746.8%36 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x064a…9c2fbacked Nuggets68c80.88$55 inWon+$25.886154.1%33 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Kings15c70$11 inLost-$10.531430.3%95 W · 219 L-1.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Nuggets75c68.7$51 inWon+$17.3716360.1%98 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2382…4628backed Nuggets69c50$35 inWon+$15.510736.4%39 W · 68 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Kings47c48$22 inLost-$22.361,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Nuggets55c25$14 inWon+$11.2563427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.