NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ca6c93fb7e64e08988c7212b1f93e0f6038d447b8c963962afeb3895d508b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe916…4563backed Kings | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Nuggets | 49c | 4,214$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.38 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Nuggets | 55c | 4,047$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.01 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Kings | 45c | 3,828$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.05 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kings | 51c | 2,500$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,130$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Kings | 48c | 1,555$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.4 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 45c | 1,476$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.28 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Kings | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nuggets | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…7231backed Nuggets | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 45c | 843.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Nuggets | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 54c | 763$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.98 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 46c | 763$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 52c | 715$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Kings | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nuggets | 49c | 684.55$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.12 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Kings | 3c | 668.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 46c | 536.71$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.51 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 45c | 424$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets | 53c | 418.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 402.4$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Nuggets | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Nuggets | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 52c | 315.38$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 50c | 221.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Nuggets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ae…5fdebacked Nuggets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…0bf3backed Kings | 46c | 167$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Kings | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…fb9abacked Nuggets | 54c | 156$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…8b8bbacked Kings | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Nuggets | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Nuggets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Nuggets | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Nuggets | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Kings | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Nuggets | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Nuggets | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Nuggets | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 242.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.