NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96787421ae4e5b9a1444dfe4328797460378b59a4217b905e91fc1360f08634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Over | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,689$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 51c | 1,098$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.54 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 49c | 1,024$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.77 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 51c | 1,024$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 1,010$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.32 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Over | 53c | 890.55$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 52c | 650$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…dd4fbacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 47c | 473.78$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 429.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 48c | 379.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 346.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 288.58$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…391dbacked Under | 52c | 288.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Over | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 47c | 230.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…56a2backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…5d7dbacked Over | 47c | 198$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f1…075bbacked Over | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…c925backed Over | 47c | 192$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Under | 52c | 191$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…fb9abacked Over | 48c | 184$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed Under | 53c | 183$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…fc18backed Under | 53c | 183$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Over | 48c | 183$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Under | 52c | 174$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0987…6046backed Under | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33e…2e73backed Over | 47c | 169$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…012bbacked Under | 53c | 161$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 157.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b6c5backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…861dbacked Under | 55c | 92.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…c97dbacked Under | 51c | 69.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Under | 50c | 45.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…13d8backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…f879backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 52c | 33.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…4ad0backed Under | 50c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…ee8ebacked Under | 55c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 51c | 20.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…768dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 243.5this page
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.