NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd780937de626a9e26c8d037c7d8c1fa7d369aed39d5b8798012d963a1f2d8aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 41c | 2,910$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Nuggets | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 44c | 1,856$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Kings | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.99 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Kings | 52c | 1,050$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Nuggets | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Kings | 42c | 899.99$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Nuggets | 59c | 847.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.08 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Nuggets | 59c | 714.02$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.75 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Nuggets | 59c | 677.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.96 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Nuggets | 59c | 640$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.4 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Nuggets | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 70c | 525.87$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 29c | 504.41$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 50c | 415.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.62 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Nuggets | 58c | 343.61$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Nuggets | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…232fbacked Kings | 43c | 187$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Kings | 42c | 185$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Kings | 42c | 182$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…8617backed Nuggets | 58c | 179$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Kings | 43c | 178$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…9ea6backed Nuggets | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Nuggets | 58c | 172.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Nuggets | 58c | 169$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…94ddbacked Kings | 43c | 168$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0987…6046backed Nuggets | 57c | 168$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…c3a5backed Nuggets | 57c | 163$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Kings | 42c | 149.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 46c | 114.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 56c | 114.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 44c | 101.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 56c | 101.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Nuggets | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Kings | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Nuggets | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Nuggets | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…b5b7backed Nuggets | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Kings | 49c | 37.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Nuggets | 52c | 32.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Nuggets | 57c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Nuggets | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Nuggets | 58c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…ee8ebacked Nuggets | 60c | 21.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 242.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.