Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x414f20c7224d245231caf258ff13cf855a90323103b0441fe7299164a8405783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 717.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 699.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.79 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…5c6dbacked Yes | 41c | 277.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 60c | 243.38$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 230.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 219.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 214$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 202.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 150.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 118.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 33c | 109.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…0529backed Yes | 65c | 104.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 50c | 96.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 49c | 88.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 20c | 79.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 23c | 64.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 61.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 61.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 59.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 44c | 59.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 58.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 50.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…649abacked Yes | 39c | 49.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 46.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 44.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 43.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…e1b5backed No | 60c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 44c | 39.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 47c | 38.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 52c | 35.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 34.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 66c | 34.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 33.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 33.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 56c | 29.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 59c | 27.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 55c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 44c | 24.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…c0e1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.